Oh Gee Apogee

EAT HER CAKE, AND MAKE MONEY OFF IT TOO! Sales & Analysis In October, 2014, Cheesecake Factory (CAKE going forward) gave us earnings guidance for 4Q fiscal 2014, of $0.58 to $0.62 based on an assumed comparable restaurant sales (SSS going forward) increase of between 1.0% and 2.0%.   At the same time, CAKE also offered 2015 earnings guidance of between $2.35 and $2.45 per share, based on an assumed SSS increase of between 1.0% and 2.0%.  This SSS range of 1% to 2% has been consistent since fiscal 2010, but there is a chance that CAKE will break out of this range to the upside, simply because its consumer will have more money in her pocket.   My logic behind consumers having more money is simple.  The price of gasoline has sharply declined over the last three months, so the US consumer has more discretionary income in her pocket.  To quantify this savings, for every consumer who fill up with 15 gals of gasoline per week, she will see an extra...

HBO will offer Standalone Streaming in the spring of 2015, which will drive growth over the next five years TWX long term guidance of $6/share and $8/share in 2016, and 2018, respectively EPS CAGR of 20% and 18%, in 2016, and 2018, respectively Initial price target of $120/share, based on 20x 2016 earnings of $6/share How many people have cut-the-cord, cable cord that is, over the years because they either couldn’t afford or couldn’t justify the monthly expense associated with 200 plus cable channels in order to access HBO?   Honestly, not that many, but I see a drastic shift in Premium Cable viewing because HBO is going to offer a streaming service that doesn’t require you to sign up for cable with any of the traditional cable brands such as Comcast, Time Warner Cable or DirecTV.  Think of it; instead of paying that cable and internet bill of more than $100 per month, you would simply use your internet TV or OTT box to subscri...

Five Below: Lowered Q4 Guidance so the Stock gets Hammered! Sales & Analysis In after-hours trading on Thursday, Five Below (ticker FIVE) announced that net sales for the nine weeks ended January 3, 2015 increased by only 24.5% to $230.7 million from $185.3 million in the comparable nine-week period of fiscal 2013.  In addition, sales guidance for the full year is now expected to growth 27% to $680 million. This year over year (YOY) sales growth is similar 2013 versus 2012, but retail companies make the majority if their earnings during the holiday season, so I never like seeing a slowdown in growth during the holiday.  Such a slowdown leads me to believe that the trend will continue into 2015.  Looking at same-store-sales (SSS), the company lowered guidance to an increase of 3.2%, compared to previous guidance of 4%.  Furthermore, executives said, “the increase in SSS was driven by average ticket,” so I would interpret the increase in SSS as...