Oh Gee Apogee

EAT HER CAKE, AND MAKE MONEY OFF IT TOO! Sales & Analysis In October, 2014, Cheesecake Factory (CAKE going forward) gave us earnings guidance for 4Q fiscal 2014, of $0.58 to $0.62 based on an assumed comparable restaurant sales (SSS going forward) increase of between 1.0% and 2.0%.   At the same time, CAKE also offered 2015 earnings guidance of between $2.35 and $2.45 per share, based on an assumed SSS increase of between 1.0% and 2.0%.  This SSS range of 1% to 2% has been consistent since fiscal 2010, but there is a chance that CAKE will break out of this range to the upside, simply because its consumer will have more money in her pocket.   My logic behind consumers having more money is simple.  The price of gasoline has sharply declined over the last three months, so the US consumer has more discretionary income in her pocket.  To quantify this savings, for every consumer who fill up with 15 gals of gasoline per week, she will see an extra $60/ month in her bank

HBO will offer Standalone Streaming in the spring of 2015, which will drive growth over the next five years TWX long term guidance of $6/share and $8/share in 2016, and 2018, respectively EPS CAGR of 20% and 18%, in 2016, and 2018, respectively Initial price target of $120/share, based on 20x 2016 earnings of $6/share How many people have cut-the-cord, cable cord that is, over the years because they either couldn’t afford or couldn’t justify the monthly expense associated with 200 plus cable channels in order to access HBO?   Honestly, not that many, but I see a drastic shift in Premium Cable viewing because HBO is going to offer a streaming service that doesn’t require you to sign up for cable with any of the traditional cable brands such as Comcast, Time Warner Cable or DirecTV.  Think of it; instead of paying that cable and internet bill of more than $100 per month, you would simply use your internet TV or OTT box to subscribe directly to

Five Below: Lowered Q4 Guidance so the Stock gets Hammered! Sales & Analysis In after-hours trading on Thursday, Five Below (ticker FIVE) announced that net sales for the nine weeks ended January 3, 2015 increased by only 24.5% to $230.7 million from $185.3 million in the comparable nine-week period of fiscal 2013.  In addition, sales guidance for the full year is now expected to growth 27% to $680 million. This year over year (YOY) sales growth is similar 2013 versus 2012, but retail companies make the majority if their earnings during the holiday season, so I never like seeing a slowdown in growth during the holiday.  Such a slowdown leads me to believe that the trend will continue into 2015.  Looking at same-store-sales (SSS), the company lowered guidance to an increase of 3.2%, compared to previous guidance of 4%.  Furthermore, executives said, “the increase in SSS was driven by average ticket,” so I would interpret the increase in SSS as a combination of price incre

Decker Outdoor is changing the structure of its product distribution model by adding company owned retail stores to its distribution model.   Since building out retail stores is a capital intensive process, I think sales revenue and fcf are the best tools to access a company’s success in the short term. My analysis will focus on revenue comps and product distribution comps to show everyone that Decker Outdoor is going to continue having challenges with shifting the business.   These challenges will have huge impacts on EPS and operation capital requirements because the company’s core product, Ugg Boots, is experiencing a sharp decline in sales.   In August 2011 I was noticed a shift in women’s fashion:   Riding boots were the new trend.   I wish Frye was a publicly traded company.   http://www.thefryecompany.com/ From a fashion standpoint, trendy women don’t wear Uggs anymore, and there are knockoff brands sold at WMT as well as many other large retailers for a fraction of the

(Source for data is 8-K and Press Release on 1-11-2011)   56 of 232 stores or 24% of Tiffany stores are in Japan 51 of 232 stores or 22% of Tiffany stores are in Asia (ex Japan)   Fiscal 4Q2011 Net sales are expected to be $888.5 million Japan sales are expected to be $142.5 million or 16% of total sales Asia (ex Japan) sales are expected to be $138.9 million or 15.6% of total sales Michael J. Kowalski, chairman and chief executive officer, said, “… fiscal year ending January 31, 2011. We now expect net sales of almost $3.1 billion and net earnings from continuing operations (excluding nonrecurring items) of $2.83 - $2.88 per diluted share, versus a previous forecast made in November of $2.72 - $2.77.” It will take months, if not a year for the Japan market to stabilize.   At the same time, Japan trades a substantial amount of goods with surrounding countries.   I firmly believe the quarter that is February – April of 2011(fiscal 1Q2012) will be poor, as well as multipl

Netflix had an outstanding quarter, 3Q10, based on adding more subs than forecasted and being on the high end of top and bottom line guidance, see chart: 3Q10 Guidance vs. Actual Low End High End Actual % Beat of High End Subscribers* 16,300 16,700 16,933 1.40% Revenue** 546 554 553.2 -0.14% GAAP Net Income** 33 40 38 -5.00% * In thousands ** In millions Whenever a company meets or beats for the high side of all guidance and then raises guidance for the following quarter, the stock price has no choice but to move upward.  I have touched on the current and near term catalysts for the company. International Expansion: Q3 was the host of expanding subscriber services to Canada (pop. 30MM).  This is essential to accelerating growth in the company because as markets such as Canada expand, it will allow Netflix to combat USA market saturation.  I s